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Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have fallen to around 2.68 million BTC, their lowest level since 2023 according to CryptoQuant data. At the beginning of 2024, they were still close to 3.2 million BTC.

 

Bitcoin ETFs took in $6.3 billion in Q3, but 2026 flows are only $985 million after first-half redemptions.

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Polymarket's Bitcoin threshold market shows $72.6 million in volume, while Kalshi's year-end closing-price market has recorded about $39.5 million.

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Bitcoin's price spent Saturday trapped close to $85,000 after Friday's charge above $87,000 collapsed, but the forecasts surrounding it were anything but quiet. Polymarket traders give bitcoin a 39% chance of touching $100,000 before 2027, Kalshi's year-end forecast stands at $86,240, Claude Opus 5.5 predicts $91,500, and ChatGPT-6 Astra goes higher at $94,000.